📝 Review:On Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated during the Asian session and touched 99.40 during the European session, but later fell below the 99-dollar mark due to dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials during the US session, ultimately closing down 0.43% at 98.35. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.3490%, while the 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 3.8700%.

USD/JPY 145.892  Sell  Target Price  144.491

📝 Review:As Iran notified the U.S. and Qatar hours before the attack, Trump said it was time for peace, and spot gold turned lower in late trading, eventually closing down 0.11% at $3,367.56 per ounce; spot silver eventually closed up 0.14% at $36.07 per ounce.

Gold 3335.57  Sell  Target Price  3294.61

📝 Review:As Iran's retaliation was less severe than investors had expected, concerns about oil supply eased, and international crude oil plummeted by more than 8%. WTI crude oil finally closed down 9.11% at $67.22 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 8.86% at $70.33 per barrel.

WTI Crude Oil 65.525  Sell  Target Price  63.500

📝 Review:The S&P 500 rose 0.96%, the Nasdaq rose 0.94%, and the Dow rose 0.89%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 8.2%, Circle (CRCL.K) rose 9.6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.85%.

Nasdaq 100 22017.150  Buy  Target Price  22109.158

📝 Review:From a technical and market perspective, the current so-called "breakout attempt" is essentially a classic bear trap. The 4-hour 233 moving average acts as the upper boundary of the descending channel, and its suppression effectiveness requires three conditions: trading volume during the breakout must be at least 1.5 times the average, the closing price must stabilize above the moving average for three consecutive K-lines, and the RSI indicator must simultaneously break through the 55 oversold threshold. However, in today's afternoon rebound, Bitcoin's trading volume was only 82% of the 20-day average, while Ethereum's was even less than 75%. The lack of volume indicates the breakout lacks genuine buying support, and is essentially a price disturbance caused by bears closing some high-leverage short positions in the futures market. Similar phenomena occurred on May 12 and June 3, both ending with "false breakouts + sharp declines." From a capital flow perspective, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium remains at a low of -19.2%, indicating institutional capital is still withdrawing, while the OKX perpetual contract funding rate stayed negative (-0.008%) during the rebound, showing professional traders did not follow up with long positions. More critically, the Bitcoin spot-futures spread (basis) narrowed from +$250 to +$80 during the rebound, indicating arbitrage capital was exploiting price surges for risk-free arbitrage, further confirming the fragility of the rebound.

BitCoin 105365.5  Buy  Target Price  107146.4