📝 Review:On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index rebounded slightly, briefly climbing back above the 97 mark during the session, but later gave back some of its gains, ultimately closing up 0.13% at 96.77. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.284%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.797%.

USD/JPY 143.498  Sell  Target Price  142.685

📝 Review:Weaker-than-expected "small non-farm payrolls" sparked hopes that the Fed would cut interest rates sooner. Spot gold broke through the $3,350 mark during the U.S. trading session, eventually closing up 0.55% at $3,357.15 per ounce; spot silver closed up 1.46% at $36.54 per ounce.

Gold 3349.77  Buy  Target Price  3399.40

📝 Review:Due to Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and the trade agreement reached between the US and Vietnam, both oil prices surged by up to 3% intraday. WTI crude oil started its rally during the European session and climbed back above $66 during the US session, ultimately closing up 2.82% at $66.62 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.7% at $68.73 per barrel.

WTI Crude Oil 66.389  Buy  Target Price  69.411

📝 Review:The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.02%, the S&P 500 rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.94%. Circle (CRCL.N) fell 7.6%, Apple (AAPL.O) rose over 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O) jumped 4.97%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) climbed 2.6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose slightly, while Alibaba (BABA.N) dropped 2.8%.

Nasdaq 100 22636.250  Buy  Target Price  22820.070

📝 Review:From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently experiencing intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. On July 3, the opening price fluctuated around $109,500, rebounding more than 3.6% from yesterday's low of $105,721, but still suppressed by the daily 5-day moving average ($107,800). The intraday trend was first suppressed and then rose, with the morning session breaking below the 4-hour 144 moving average ($106,500) before rebounding in the afternoon. The 30-minute MACD divergence was briefly repaired, but the 4-hour RSI indicator showed hidden divergence (the price hit a new high of $109,500 while the RSI dropped from 68.5 to 66.2). In terms of key moving averages, the 30-minute 233 moving average ($107,200) turned into support, and the 4-hour 144 moving average was tested twice without breaking, forming a double bottom with a 40% increase in trading volume. The daily 5-day moving average remains a resistance level, and whether the closing price can stabilize above this level is key to the shift in the bullish-bearish trend. There are contradictory signals in the technical aspects, including weakening momentum (the 30-minute MACD red column area shrank by 35%), volume-price divergence (the trading volume when breaking through $109,500 was only 60% of yesterday's peak), and capital divergence (the Grayscale premium rate rebounded to +5.2%, but CME futures open interest has declined for two consecutive weeks). Market sentiment is affected by the progress of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House of Representatives. If passed before July 4, it may boost Bitcoin's anti-inflation demand; otherwise, if the bill is blocked, it could cool risk aversion and lead to a pullback to $106,500. The escalation of the dispute between Trump and Musk caused Tesla to fall by 5.3%, indirectly affecting cryptocurrency risk appetite. In terms of operations, you can go long lightly at $107,200 (stop loss at $106,800, target at $109,500), and if it falls below $106,500, you can reverse to go short (stop loss at $106,900, target at $103,000). For spot holders, you can buy put options with a strike price of $107,000 expiring on July 5 near $109,500 to hedge risks. The current BTCVIX index is 85, and it is recommended to keep the total position within 30%. Core risks to watch out for include false breakouts at $109,500, the U.S. initial jobless claims data on July 4, and potential policy negatives if the "Big and Beautiful" bill includes cryptocurrency tax provisions.

BitCoin 108747.0  Buy  Target Price  110416.3