📝 Review:Last Friday, due to the uncertainty in the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on the global economy, the U.S. dollar index recorded its largest weekly gain in over a month, while remaining flat on a daily basis, ultimately closing down 0.01% at 98.77. The dollar index rose about 0.5% early Monday before retreating; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3830% last Friday, while the 2-year yield closed at 3.9160%.

USD/JPY 146.172  Buy  Target Price  147.555

📝 Review:Although rising geopolitical risks provided support for gold prices, the increase in U.S. inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance affected market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Fed this year. Spot gold stabilized last Friday, ultimately closing down 0.07% at $3,371.39 per ounce. Influenced by factors such as U.S. airstrikes on Iran's three major nuclear facilities and Trump questioning why the Iranian regime cannot be changed, spot gold opened $24 higher on Monday, reaching a peak of $3,398 per ounce. Last Friday, spot silver closed down 1.9% at $36.02 per ounce.

Gold 3371.67  Sell  Target Price  3338.39

📝 Review:WTI crude oil surged at the opening last Friday but then retreated, nearly erasing all its intraday gains, closing up 0.2% at $73.96 per barrel. Due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, WTI crude oil opened 3.7% higher on Monday. Brent crude oil fell 1.93% last Friday, closing at $77.17 per barrel, and opened 1.8% higher on Monday.

WTI Crude Oil 75.423  Buy  Target Price  77.892

📝 Review:The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.51%. Circle (CRCL.N) surged 20%, Coinbase (COIN.O) rose 4.43%. Chip stocks weakened, with TSMC (TSM.N) down 1.87% and Intel (INTC.O) down 1.91%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.92%.

Nasdaq 100 21510.050  Sell  Target Price  21103.064

📝 Review:At the macro level, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, CME interest rate futures show that the market's probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to 15%, and the U.S. dollar index has formed strong support at the 98.85 level. Historical data indicates that the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index rose to 0.73 during policy-sensitive periods. If the dollar breaks through the 99 mark, it will create a liquidity squeeze on cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve is essentially political maneuvering rather than a signal of a shift in monetary policy. The market's desensitization to such "empty talk" is reflected in the narrowing volatility of cryptocurrency prices. The logic of contrarian trading should focus on: although the 4-hour MACD histogram briefly turned positive, the fast line (12) and slow line (26) still formed a death cross below the zero axis, and the RSI indicator showed a bearish divergence at the 55 level—a typical signal of a bearish rebound. If the price fails to stabilize above 106,200 points (the secondary resistance level of the 4-hour 233 moving average) within 24 hours, it is highly likely to test the 98,000-point integer level—a critical juncture for bulls and bears since March 2025 and the dense stop-loss zone for 85% of short positions in the futures market. For traders, the correct strategy is not to wait for a "clear signal" but to capitalize on the market's misjudgment of "bullish dominance" by establishing short positions. Specific operations could include: deploying put options in the 105,500–106,000 point range, setting a stop-loss at 106,800 points (the upper band of the 4-hour channel), and targeting 98,500 points. This trading design avoids the "bull trap" while aligning with the dual trends of macro liquidity tightening and technical breakdowns, offering a risk-reward ratio of 1:3.2—far superior to blindly chasing rallies.

BitCoin 100661.6  Sell  Target Price  98061.4