XRP Hits $1.38 as Rakuten Opens 44M Users to the Token

Yesterday, XRP went from $1.32 to $1.38. It wasn't a sudden jump, but a slow rise supported by real volume. The breakout broke through a support zone that had been holding the token back between $1.325 and $1.33, and the way it did it was important. It wasn't a slow Sunday with thin liquid at this pump. Data on whale accumulation and growing open interest both showed that real positioning was getting stronger behind the move.

The trigger was simple: Rakuten Wallet, which is the digital asset part of Japan's biggest consumer ecosystem, is adding XRP for spot trade and, more importantly, as a direct way to redeem Rakuten Points. Through Rakuten Pay, 44 million users can now turn their reward points into XRP and spend it at more than 5 million stores right away. Ripple said it was one of the most important steps in the history of the token's acceptance. The words used are meant to promote, but the facts behind them are hard to argue with.

What Rakuten Actually Is — and Why the Scale Here Is Different

Crypto hits the news mostly when it is listed on an exchange, when a partnership makes a press release, or when the government gives the go-ahead. It's important to know the difference between events like this one and others.

For more than just shopping, Rakuten is a great spot. You can use it as a shopping mall, bank, trip booking service, phone company, and loyalty program all at the same time in Japan. You only need one login and points amount for all of them. You can get more than 3 trillion Rakuten Points, which are worth about $23 billion. A hundred million deals go through the site every month. Every year, 5.6 trillion yen worth of goods are bought and sold on the site.

XRP would be integrated into Japanese commerce at a scale most crypto projects only dream about in their whitepapers. Forty-four million customers signed up for airline miles, grocery rebates, and hotel discounts, not crypto. They may now use XRP in their existing system, which is a different adoption vector than downloading a wallet software after reading something bullish on crypto Twitter.

To celebrate the launch, Rakuten is also running a promotion giving up to 100,000 yen in XRP rewards. This is a useful incentive that could get people who would not have otherwise thought about the token to try it for the first time.

It's important to remember that this is not something Ripple said. It's a project from Rakuten Wallet. Ripple hasn't talked about it in public, and Rakuten said it was a business decision. Because of this, the integration is still important, but the story about Ripple's direct part needs to be told with more care.

XRP's Position in Japan Before This Even Happened

The Rakuten merger doesn't happen by itself. The JVCEA Green List, which is Japan's FSA-recognized framework for institutional-grade crypto assets, says that XRP is already the third most popular digital asset in Japan's regulated exchange environment. 

It's only behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. That base line is important. It's one thing to add a token to a huge loyalty program; it's quite another when regulators, exchanges, and a big chunk of the domestic investment base already know what it is.

Through its SBI Ripple Asia relationship, Ripple has also been present in Asia for a long time. This partnership has spent years building XRP's credibility in the Japanese financial system. The Rakuten news fits into a trend that already exists; it's a speeding up of something that has been happening in the background for years.

Regulations add another layer. Japan's Financial Services Agency is scheduled to complete a crypto reclassification framework by mid-2026 that could lower digital asset capital gains tax from 55% to 20%. The trajectory shows the framework will pass, changing the economics of owning and spending XRP in Japan. A loyalty point redemption that currently incurs 55% tax on earnings looks different at 20%. The Rakuten integration shortly before that policy adjustment is either well-planned or lucky.

The Technical Picture: Strong Move, But Not a Clean Trend Flip

The break above the barrier at $1.33 is real. The move was slow and steady, as shown by the volume, and XRP is now stabilising just below $1.38, keeping its gains instead of giving them back right away. That's good behaviour for prices.

The structure beneath it requires work. XRP remains inside a broader downtrend channel, and one clean session doesn't flip a multi-week technical picture. Even if short-term momentum has recovered, ETF outflows and realised losses throughout the holder base reflect uneven longer-term conviction. Aggregation and distribution occur simultaneously at separate time periods, creating a confusing setup that traps traders who predict the trend too early.

The levels that matter from here:

$1.37 is pivotal. Holding above it preserves the breakout structure and favours continuation. A loss of momentum would indicate absorption rather than momentum. The true test is between $1.40 and $1.42. This zone has resisted XRP for weeks, so a clean break through it on volume like Tuesday's would signal a more significant market move. Before then, the cryptocurrency is in breakout-confirmation mode, not uptrend.

If the price drops below $1.30 to $1.32, the rise is null and void, and XRP returns to its previous range. This is the situation that short-term longs need to avoid.

Why This Matters Beyond the Price Chart

Most crypto payment connections are announced, celebrated, and then barely used. The infrastructure is created, merchants don't sell, and the press release aged horribly. Rakuten is structured differently for several reasons.

The friction is low. Users don't need to download a wallet, comprehend private keys, or understand blockchains. They can now redeem points from regular purchases. The behavioural request is small. Spend points on XRP instead of flight upgrades. The pitch is simple, and conversion rates are higher than traditional crypto onboarding.

The business network is huge and already exists. There's no need for the 5 million stores that accept Rakuten Pay to decide to accept XRP on their own; they're already on the market. It's not necessary for businesses to switch to new point-of-sale technology because XRP is being added to payment systems that are already in use.

And the loyalty point has a psychological side that should be taken into account. Most people think of points as free money, even though they don't come from savings accounts. Instead, they're changed from something that feels somewhat abstract. That makes it easier for people to try a new type of asset, which is something that would normally keep a lot of people from getting involved with crypto at all.

Whether this leads to steady on-chain activity and, in the end, stable XRP price support relies on how transactions actually behave after the announcement of integration. But this is one of the best places to use crypto for real than almost any other crypto payment story in recent memory.

The Honest Assessment

That XRP price drop to $1.38 is real and backed by trade. The Rakuten integration is the most important step toward widespread use of the token in years, and Japan's legal direction is positive. Ripple's already existing footprint in the region gives the integration credibility that a partnership that starts from scratch wouldn't have.

But XRP isn't definitely going up either. The channel of the decline is still there. It's still not clear how ETF flows and long-term holders will act. And there is never a promise that the price will go up after an exciting product announcement. Crypto markets have a history of leading with good news and then selling the reality.

In the $1.40–$1.42 range, confidence is put to the test. This is a good release below it that you should watch. On top of it, the talk changes.

Forty-four million possible new users is the most important real-world number that XRP has had in a long time. What the market does with that from now until mid-2026, when Japan's tax system might change how profitable it is to keep digital assets in Japan, will tell you a lot about where the floor of the token actually is.