Trump Says Iran War Could End 'Right After the Elections' as Hormuz Crisis Drags On

Speaking at a rally in Alabama, U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end "very soon, probably right after the elections." The timing of that remark is telling: he offered no path to an agreement, and by the time he spoke, a crude oil tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman.

Negotiating With Whom? Trump Doesn't Have an Answer Either

Trump reiterated that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon, then posed a question that exposes the real deadlock: who in Tehran can Washington actually negotiate with?

The problem isn't willingness on the U.S. side — it's that nobody knows where the diplomatic window is. Iran, for its part, is still waiting for a definitive American response to its proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, having previously said it would not soften its conditions. The IRGC went further, telling the Iraqi News Agency that Iranian forces now have "full control" of the waterway. Both sides, in other words, are trading postures instead of terms.

Tanker Strike and Reserve Releases: Two Forces Pulling the Oil Market

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a crude tanker was hit off Oman; all crew members are safe and the incident is under investigation. Shipping risk around the strait shows no sign of cooling.

On the other side of the ledger, the supply-side response is underway: G7 countries have agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude reserves over four months. IEA chief Fatih Birol said oil prices had begun falling after the announcement, and Trump followed up by saying Washington would not proceed with a threatened export ban. It's a classic policy hedge against geopolitical risk — but set against Hormuz's throughput of more than 12 million barrels a day, 100 million barrels is a cushion, not a solution.

Yemen Escalation and a 66-Country Economic Squeeze

The conflict keeps spreading through Yemen. The internationally recognized government's forces claimed 474 attacks on Houthi positions within 24 hours, killing or wounding 1,540 fighters — figures the Houthis have not confirmed. In southern Saudi Arabia, debris from an intercepted ballistic missile injured a resident in the Asir region, and the Saudi-led coalition intercepted three missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.

Economic pressure is escalating in parallel: Washington has joined 66 countries in calling for enforcement of reimposed UN sanctions and urging Iran to return to its non-proliferation commitments.

What to Watch Next

Three markers: whether the U.S. delivers a formal reply to Iran's Hormuz reopening proposal; whether the G7 release holds the oil price decline in place; and whether Trump's "after the elections" timeline turns into actual negotiation moves. Until then, every pullback in oil prices is more likely a pause than a turning point.